Some Leading Events in the Current Story of the World

SOME LEADING EVENTS IN THE CURRENT STORY OF THE WORLD. BY DR. J. M. TANNER, SUPERINTENDENT OF CHURCH SCHOOLS.

Will Other Nations be Involved in the War?

It hardly seems reasonable that any one of the Great Powers would declare war on its neighbor by offering its assistance either to Russia or Japan at this time. If France should conclude that it is her duty to come the aid of Russia, her ally, it would virtually amount to a declaration of war against Great Britain whose treaty stipulations would compel her, in honor, to side with Japan. From every human aspect of the case, such a course by France would be a suicidal one. France would have to depend wholly upon her navy whose strength does not equal that of Great Britain, and which must in the nature of things be swept out of existence. England has done apparently everything to put herself in good rapport with France. King Edward's visit to France, some time ago, and the visit of President Loubet, later, to London were both in the interest of a better understanding between the two countries. There can be no doubt that the more conservative states- men of both nations are doing all they can to remain aloof from all complications in the present struggle. They may offer their good services in adjusting terms of peace, and they may insist upon certain terms with some show of aggression, but interference, at this stage, would arouse both nations to the most intense war- like sentiments. But it must be admitted that notwithstanding the probable consequences to France of an effort on her part to come to Rus- sia's assistance at this time, there is a strong sentiment in Paris

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in favor of such a course. Some few years ago, when a French officer raised his country's flag in Fashoda, a part of northern Africa claimed by Great Britain, the latter was thrown into war- like demonstrations instantly, and demanded that the French flag be pulled down; and the demand under the threat was acceded to by France, much to her humiliation and chagrin. There was a momentary flash of a military explosion, and all was over. It is claimed that during the Fashoda episode, Russia prof- fered her aid to France, in case the latter decided to resist the British demand. In gratitude for such prompt and generous promises of aid by Russia, a very large number of Parisians are clamoring for a return of similar assurances to Russia. The present government has been able to resist all such appeals, and retain its majority in parliament; but parliamentary governments are often easily and quickly overthrown in France. The Parisians apparently know how to stampede parliament, when occasions of intense excitement arise; and they have nearly involved France in war with Germany more than once since 1871, by their clamor. If the Russians should suffer some overwhelming defeat on

land, it is not at all unlikely that the Parisians would raise the cry, *'0n to Tokyo." What the general result would be, no one could easily foretell. Germany might be compelled to follow France in the event of England's co-operation with Japan. Germany would not take sides so much on France's account as she would to pursue her policy of friendship for Russia, and because of a long- standing ill-will to Great Britain. The United States would in such a general conflict hardly maintain a neutral position, not because the United States has any particular friend among the Great Powers to reward, or any foe among them to punish, but because the result of such a war might leave the United States outside of all treaty considerations, and outside of commercial advantages which this country is eager to enjoy, in case of a neutral position on the part of this country. The war as it exists today promises to be the most sanguinary since the Civil War, and the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71; and if more than two nations become involved, it will certainly

grow into proportions beyond any the world has ever witnessed. France has in her keeping, therefore, the restriction of the war to

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the nations now in arms; but the French are impetuous and the Parisians may, in a moment of intense excitement, carry the

government off its feet, and precipitate a world-wide struggle. Thus far it may be fairly supposed that France has main- tained the most perfect neutrality. Soon after the Russian fleet in Chinese waters met such a catastrophe, Admiral Wirenius started with his squadron of war ships from the Baltic for the orient, in aid of the fleet there, but he returned after reaching the Red Sea, as he was unable to secure coal for the voyage, without the permission of France to use the latter's coaling stations. The cynic may declare, as he has done, that Wirenius evidently considered his fleet safer in the Baltic than in the neighborhood of the Japanese. It was given out that France declined the use

by Russia of the former's coaling stations. Such an announce- ment had the effect of creating strong pro-Russian sentiment in Paris. In a general way, it may be expected that the Parisians will do what they can to pay Russia back, at least in friendly sentiment; and the present protests in favor of Russia may in large part be nothing more than sentiment. Many writers are taking the pro-Russian French seriously, and the next step is for the latter to regard themselves in the light that others view them. In times of war, when national excite- ment is likely to run high, it is often easy to convert the possible into the probable, so no one would be bold enough to predict that the war now raging is unlikely to involve other nations.

Lake Baikal.

One of the great tasks Russia has found in the winter trans- portation of her troops to the seat of war is the crossing of Lake- Baikal. This lake is receiving world-wide attention, and is the object of careful study, not only as a problem of the war, but as a peculiar phenom.enon and a geographical question. When the road had been constructed more than two-thirds its length along southern Siberia, it came to the shores of the lake, a lake elevated more than fifteen hundred feet above sea level, and having in the deepest places a depth of over thirty-one hundred feet. It is about three hundred and fifty miles in length, and forty miles wide at the place where the boats cross to connect with the east-

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em division. From November to April, it is practically icebound. During the summer time, the trains are run onto boats, and quickly- carried over. During a part of the frozen period, an icebreaker is run, but the icebreaker operates successfully only when the ice is not more than four feet thick. It is estimated that this year the ice reached a depth of nine feet. In order to overcome long delays at the west side of the lake, a temporary road bed was laid over the ice. This ice railroad, however, was for the trans- portion of provisions, and not for the soldiers, who were taken over in sleighs. By a peculiar disturbance of the waters below, the ice is often » broken so that crevices form three to six feet appear. When these crevices open, there is a loud detonation resembling the peal of thunder; and frequently the crevices close as suddenly as they open, piling up great windrows of ice that are impossible to cross. When the crevices remain open, the water is so greatly disturbed, by the violent action of the lake, that it often takes two weeks for them to freeze over. This cracking of the ice goes endlessly on throughout the winter, and is one of the great obsta- cles to transportation across the lake. The present crisis has made the intention of Russia to construct a road around the lake, conclusive. Along the sides of the lake where the road would have to be built, abrupt mountain sides come close up to the water; and these mountains are from three to six thousand feet high, so that much tunneling will have to be done. The distance covered by a road around the lake would be nearly a hundred miles, and the estimated time necessary to construct it is four years. It is hardly likely that Russia can complete such an undertaking this summer, though assertions to that effect are often credited to her through the press news. Italians have been employed on the work, owing to their experience in the con- struction of railway tunnels through the Alps between Italy and Switzerland. Some idea of the difficulty of transportation over Baikal may be had when it is known that the huge ice breaker alone cost $4,500,- 000. It is the second largest in the world. Ifc was modeled after those used in the straits of Mackinac, in Michigan. There is a smaller ice breaker used on the lake; and all told, transportation

facilities over Baikal have cost the government upwards of $6,000,-

0. The creative genius of this great road is Prince Michael

Khilkoff, whose life, before he was made Minister of Public Works, reads like a romance. Crossing Lake Baikal is one of the severe hardships to which Russian soldiers have been subjected, and, it is said that several hundreds have died from the effects of extreme cold. However, the Russians deny that their soldiers have suffered at all. The de- nial covers too much, as the intense cold of Siberia, in itself, is

enough to create convictions in the minds of the public that Rus- sian soldiers must have suffered very greatly. The ice-breaker opened the lake to traffic, on May 6.

The Petropavlovsk.

On the 12th of April the world was startled by the announce- ment that the great battleship Petropavlovsk, and nearly all those on board had been destroyed by the explosion of a mine near the entrance of the harbor of Port Arthur. A conflict at once arose as to who was responsible for the catastrophe. The reports published by both the Russians and the Japanese were greatly at variance. The account given by Admiral Togo was that on the evening of the 12th, under cover of darkness, some naval officers and sailors proceeded close up to the entrance to Port Arthur, and laid mines, against one of which the great battleship struck, and by which it was destroyed with nearly all on board. If the

Japanese account proved true, it would only go to show that Rus- sia had been caught in a trap, and so the Russians promptly denied

that a Japanese bomb was responsible for the great catastrophe. St. Petersburg gave out the explanation that it had probably been accomplished by some Japanese submarine boat which in the conflict was itself struck and destroyed. Such an explanation was far-fetched, and was not generally credited. The Russians could hardly admit that the ship had run into one of its own mines. Such culpable negligence would be unpardonable, as Russia had already lost one battleship by the explosion of one of its own mines. The world generally accepted Admiral Togo's account, not only because of the untenable Russian theory, but because the Japanese reports have generally been found to be the more accurate. The Petro- pavlovsk cost, exclusive of her guns, some $5,000,000.

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The loss, however, of the ship, was not such a striking blow to Russia as the death of Makaroff, Russia's greatest admiral. Af- ter the early disaster to the Russian fleet, Makaroff was sent to the front, and all sorts of hopeful predictions were made of what he would do. He changed the policy of hovering about under the guns of the fortress, and every now and then sallied out to cut off, if he could, some of the Japanese vessels from the main fleet. This boldness and daring of Makaroff greatly appealed to Russian admiration. He was, perhaps, the greatest naval hero Russia ever honored, and great things were expected of him. He had in- vented and constructed a great ice-breaking steamer, and was the inventor of a number of labor-saving devices in the Russian navy. Undoubtedly Makaroff was an able leader and a deviceful man, and appealed strongly to the Russian pride. His daring attacks upon detached portions of the Japanese fleet proved his own undoing. He sallied out, and in the harbor taught the Japanese the roadway of the battleship, and they secretly laid the mines that within less than five minutes turned the great ship upside down and sank her. Besides the great Makaroff, there was also on board the Petro- pavlovsk the famous Russian artist, Vassili Verestchagin, age 61, who had been a realistic painter of many great battle scenes of historic note. He was celebrated as a war artist, and visited the scenes of the battles in the Boer war, the Boxer campaign in China, and of Santiago. While looking upon the ruined vessels, he is

said to have declared that he must witness one such battle before he went to the great beyond. He had his desire in some measure gratified, for the artist and the wargod went down together. After

the destruction of Petropavlovsk and another vessel of less im- portance, the Japanese began the bombardment of the town of Port Arthur, but so far as known without destructive effect.

As John Chinaman Sees It.

John has been looking on, and has shown some interest in the war going on between Russia and Japan. John is not everlastingly dull; and if his English is not always grammatical, there is never- theless some rhetoric in it. Japan's rapid descent upon Russia, and the consequent landslide that upset the Russian fleet, startled

John and set his imagination to play in the following metaphorical English: "Allee, samee, blogan slide — Zip! Go like walkee !

milee," which being translated into plain English means that the Japanese are tobogganing just now, and that before Japan has another slide she will have to do some tall climbing. John evi- dently thinks the land engagements will be uphill work.

The English in Tibet.

In 1890, the British government entered into certain negoti- ations with the Chinese Empire respecting its province of Tibet, in the extreme west of China. By this treaty of Gnatong, as it is commonly called, commerce in Tibet was to be opened to the Eng- lish. The Tibetans are among the most seclusive people in the world, and therefore did not care to have any dealings whatever with outside nations, and especially with Great Britain. Every at- tempt, therefore, on the part of the colonial government in India to reach the Tibetans proved fruitless. Year after year went on with no prospect of reaching any understanding with the Tibetans. In the earlier years of the treaty of 1890, the English did not press the matter, as it was well known that the commerce of the province of Tibet is of no very great importance. Tibet is the highest plateau of the world on which there is any considerable population, but the plateau is quite barren in most places, and is not capable of maintaining a dense population. It is, perhaps, twice the size of Manchuria, with not more than six

or seven million people, and these have a bare existence. The country, therefore, is not inviting. When, however, the Russians began the construction of the Trans-Siberian railway, and reached a point immediately north of Tibet, the English foresaw the probable construction of a spur line in the direction of Lhasa, the chief city of the Tibetans and the residence of the Grand Lama, the spiritual head of the Buddhists. The question of British dominance became then a part of the old question of British and Russian jealousy over Asiatic spheres of influence. It was reported that Russia had sent a Lama to Lhasa,

and was intriguing for supremacy there. England then renewed an effort much more determined to open negotiations with Tibet, and finally, after numerous excuses and delays on the part of the

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Tibetans, determined to send a "mission" to the country to treat with the Grand Lama. It was an armed "mission," however, and Colonel Younghusband was put in command of it. The press gen- erally criticised Great Britain for sending the mission just at a time when Russia was involved in war with Japan. The expedition had reached the country, and had advanced in it as far as Guru, when fifteen hundred Tibetan soldiers undertook to prevent further advance. They erected a wall across the road, and with their match-locks and swords menaced the British. It is said that every effort was made to dissuade them from hostilities, and finally to disarm the Tibetans; the latter, however, undertook to charge Younghusband's men who mowed the Tibetans down like grass. Fully one-half of this crude opposing force was killed. The expedition is now not likely to end before it reaches the sa-

cred city of Lhasa. It will probably result in the English estab- lishing a mission in Lhasa, and leaving there an adviser to the government of Tibet. The Tibetans will then be advised as to what they should do in all important matters, and they will learn that the advice in the end must be obeyed. We have learned little about Tibet, which has kept aloof from the world at large. Travelers who have approached too near the sa- cred city have been met and escorted away from it. The chief knowl- edge of the peculiar practices of the people has come to us through the Buddhist Lamas who have gone on pilgrimages. Lhasa is the depository of Buddhist lore, and is supposed to contain the secret mysteries of that religion. The Grand Lama is said to remember the previous lives he has gone through, in his various and numer- ous incarnations in the flesh. Lamas are also said to die, as a rule, very young, as they are really subject to a power behind the throne. One of the policies, it is said, of the people of the country is to limit as far as possible any increase in the population, owing to the great poverty of the masses and the limited resources of the country. One son out of every family is, therefore, required to enter the monastery. They also practice polyandry, the marriage of one woman to several men; that is, when a brother takes a wife, she immediately accepts as her husband each of his brothers. Thi g

practice materially lessens the birth rate, and therefore aids in limiting the population of the country. It may be that Tibet has more resources than have been as- cribed to the country. Its mineral resources have certainly not

been exploited, and it may be that agriculture could be fostered under proper economic conditions. Few believe that Great Britain hopes for any particular commercial advantages from her control of the policy of the country. Russia will be kept out, and the head waters of the Yangtse, which are in Tibet, will not be under control of any country whose policy is hostile to Great Britain, which controls the commerce of the lower valleys of the Yangtse, in China. The expedition may in some measure be the result of the restless Teutonic energy which has characterized the British for centuries. They are venturous, and naturally love to explore the hidden places of the world. While the war goes on. Great Britain will certainly not be troubled by Russia; but, after all, the Russians, by means of their great Trans-Siberian railway, will be in a position to get the lion's share of whatever commerce Tibet may have for the world at large.

Threatened Troubles in Armenia.

The great powers are now experiencing a feeling of anxiety over what Turkey may do in the near future in Armenia. The Armenian question has come to be one of the most delicate affecting the Turkish empire. The Armenians are Christians, and any attack upon them by Moslems is regarded with horror by the Christian world; and yet the Armenians are agitating independ- ence. The great powers should give the Armenians to understand just what may be expected, in case the latter adopt revolutionary measures. To permit the Armenians to believe that the great powers will come to the former's aid, when a number of the Armenians have been killed by the Turks, is to encourage a revolution and perhaps a vast amount of unnecessary bloodshed. If the Turks are to be permitted to do what Russia, France, or Germany would do, they will of course adopt drastic measures in resisting and punishing the Armenians.

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In the Sassoun district the Armenians are committing un- questioned depredations upon the Turkish soldiery. The Armenians go across the line into Russia where they are permitted to provide themselves with food and arms, and then return to commit acts of violence upon the subjects of Turkey on the south side of the border line. The trouble is that when these depredations arouse the Turks to acts of hostility, they go to such extremes as to be really cruel, from the civilized point of view. The Turks have already sent warning and informed the powers that it is only against the agitators that they expect to take action soon. We may therefore have another Armenian question. The Armenians are not faring so well at this time in Russia. When the Russians, in the war of 1878, annexed the northern part of Armenia, they did everything possible to favor the Armen- ians, thus transferred to the realms of the Czar, and swell there-

by the feelings of discontent among the Armenians who were compelled to remain under Turkish rule. The principles of favor and justice are not fixed quantities in the Russian empire and now ;

that the new governor of Russian Armenia has seen fit to change the liberal policy of his predecessor, the Armenians there are suffering as a consequence. If the result of a revolution should simply mean the transfer of from Turkey Armenians to Russia, it is very doubtful whether they would have any thing to gain. An independent Armenia is hardly conceivable; and as Russia would be the most likely winner in a successful rev- olution in Armenia, the more enlightened governments of Europe can hold out little or no encouragement to the misgoverned and unfortunate Armenians.

The Competition of Women.

Women may not at this time be crowding men out of a multi- tude of occupations, and there may be no cause for alarm among those who see in her an ever-increasing activity; but whether she is dangerous to men or not, in the struggle for a livelihood, there is just now going on a very grave discussion as to the ever-widening field of her employment, and what men have suffered and are now suffering as a consequence of the competition she is waging against them. The latest statistics show an alarmingly great in-

crease of unmarried women; and it is known that they constitute a vast army in a large number of occupations, many of which until recently have been carried on by men. Then again, it is found that men suffer from a constantly increasing number of women compet- itors who, though married, are unwilling to assume the duties and responsibilities of motherhood. Women who have spent years in an office or have had public employment in schools, or private em- ployment in stores and factories,do not take kindly to the humdrum life of a housewife. They prefer to keep on in their employment and avoid motherhood. It is surprising what a change has come over the public with

respect to the different occupations in which women may engage with propriety and public approval. She may be a lawyer, and some thirty-four states have made it possible for her to practice before the bar of their courts. She may be the principal of a school, without changing the movements of the universe. In the ministry, it is not unladylike for her to speak. Today male stenog- graphers begin to look effeminate, and women book-keepers are quite the fashion. There is great alarm felt today because wages do not increase with the increase in the expense of living; and this is largely due to the fact that the supply in the labor market is very great, and made so by the industrial army of women. This all gives rise to a growing opposition, wherever it can be created, to the em- ployment of women. There is a growing determination to keep married women out of the school room, and restrict the number of employes where possible. The argument against the employment of women where they are today crowding men from remunerative places, is of course ir- rational, but reason offers no consolation for want. As long as men and women pay so much for the luxuries of life, the demand for labor may measurably satisfy both classes; but the danger point will be found in recurring panics, when the demands sink nearer to the level of necessities. Should a crisis come to our country, similar to that of 1893, the increased number of women employees would add very greatly to the gravity of the situation. Men are already complaining, and newspapers and magazines are earnestly discussing the pressing competition of women. Those

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who thought that marriage would afford a panacea for the diffi- culty, find themselves mistaken, because a large number of married women continue in their former employment, which they are able to do by shirking the duties of motherhood.

Samuel Smiles.

The death, on April 16, of Samuel Smiles, at the age of nine- ty-one, will recall to many the book, Self Help, which made his name famous the world over. Self Help has had a wonderful effect upon the lives of many thousands of young people, who have been aroused to action through the inspiration it gave them. Self Help is not a philosophical work, and analytical minds find in it many ob- jectionable attempts at generalizations. Whatever future gener- ations may think of the book, it has certainly accomplished a wonderful mission. The book, it is said, has been translated into seventeen languages, but it never had in any other country such a wide circulation as it enjoyed in England and in the United States. Samuel Smiles was himself a type of the progressive manhood that he loved to picture to his readers. One of eleven children, he was dependent on a widowed mother in meagre circumstances. He became a physician, then a journalist, and afterwards a railway man, and finally an author. His writings touched the heart and head awakened feelings of admiration for those whose alike, and

efforts in life had crowned them with success. His books. Duty, Thrift, and Character, never became so popular as Self Help. They were not so distinctive in the line of thought followed, and never gained any particular hold on the popular mind. Self Help has had its day, and is not likely to have anything like the effect on future generations that it has exercised over the generation that lived with Smiles.