New Map of Europe

New Map of Europe BY DR. JOSEPH M. TANNER

The temptation to speculate about how Europe will look on themap after this war is quite irresistible. In the beginning men were discussing the causes, now they are arguing effects. It is a little premature, to be sure, but speculation has about it the charm of novelty, and appeals to the spirit of wonderment in man. If the Allies win, what? If the Germans and Austrians succeed, what will they do? There is between these two extremes a medium that has in it perhaps stronger probabilities than either extreme. As things now look, the process of the war will be a wearing one, and the question rather one of exhaustion than of conquest. The side that loses through exhaustion, or even through an unrelenting aggres- sion, must pay a terribly heavy penalty. The system of defense in modern warfare has such numerous advantages that on either side it can almost demand two men for one. Who wants to pay such a terrible toll of death to win out? What is likely to happen in case of a compromise or a draw, if you please? It could hardly be a statu quo because at present Germany has such an advantage in Belgium, France and Russia, that these powers would insist, in any event, upon the return to Germany's original, boundaries. Japan, in any event, may be looked to as retaining the possession of Kaiu Chau and perhaps Germany will lose some of her Pacific islands. The rearrange- ment of the sea powers is of no consequence, because the invention of the submarine has upset all naval calculations. What the neu- tral world will want to see, however the war may end, is restitution to Belgium. She was entitled to the rights of her neutrality, and was perfectly justified in insisting that her country should not be made a cockpit for the contending armies of Europe. The calam- ity of Belgium is the most pathetic thing of the whole war. It may, perhaps, be safest to believe that the war will close with the victorious party willing to make a considerable number of concessions. What a nation might want to do in the flush of its vigor, and in the exercise of its greatest power, and what it

may be willing to do at the point of exhaustion, are two very different things, so we may look for a number of compromises. What most people are now asking, however, is what certain nations would like to have. If Germany wins, she would like to have on the east her boundaries extended so as to include Russian

446 IMPROVEMENT ERA Poland. She would keep Belgium and northern France which would include the iron mines and coal fields. She would want to draw a line straight across eastward from Calais to the German boundary. Military necessity would compel her to make some change in Holland for future protection. That country might be annexed, but it is more likely they would give the Dutch the empty honors of becoming an impotent German state whose chief privileges would be to send representatives to the German reichstag. That would practically give Germany control of the North Sea. What Germany would like to see, perhaps most of all, would be the utter destruction of the English navy. Such a possibility at present seems to me the most distant result of the war. It is not even imaginable. Austria would annex Servia and perhaps all of the country extending south in Macedonia and Adrianople, though it is hard to see how the Germans could really take any Turkish territory under the circumstances. They would no doubt ask for additional concessions for railroads, mining and manu- facturing in Asia Minor. Austria would also aim to control the whole Albanian coast, as well as Istria, and Dalmatia. However, Austria is not likely to want a very large increase of her territory, as it would include foreigners who are already giving her no end of trouble, even in times of peace. If the Allies win, what then? The richest plum of the whole war would fall over the fence into their garden the greatest :

country of the whole world now awaiting development by a pro- gressive civilization is Asia Minor, and we may include the Valley of the Mesopotamia. Russia and England would make some sort of division of that country between themselves, and satisfy France bv enlarging her boundaries in Europe, and granting to her the chief money indemnity. Russia would straighten out her western borders so as to bring Prussian Poland and Austrian Poland within her domain. It is probable that she would want a consid- erable strip of Selicia. Russia already has as many Teutons in her empire as she can well handle. England would insist upon the destruction of the German fleet, and a very heavy indemnity for Belgium the neutralization of the Kiel canal, and perhaps the ;

return of Schleswig-Holstein to Denmark. England traded Helgoland in front of Wilhelmshaven, in the North Sea, for a worthless strip of land in Africa. That turned out to be a bad bargain on the part of England, and she may insist on the return of Helgoland to the British empire. France will want, first of all, the return of Alsace Lorraine and perhaps five billion franks, a billion dollars which Bismarck took out of France as an indemnity after the war of 1870. To Belgium might be added a small strip of Geman territory, but that is hardly likely. What Belgium would want most would be a heavy money indemnity.

NEW MAP OF EUROPE 447

Perhaps the most significant changes of all would be in the break-up of the Austrian empire. Not one-third of that entire empire consists of Germans. Austria is a conglomeration of nationalities, the most important of which are the Hungarians who insist that the empire shall be called the Austro-Hungarian empire. Then there are the Slavs of the north Bohemians on ;

the east; the Rumanians, a kinspeople to the Italians, on the south, and the Servians; and on the west, the Italians. Many students of history have for years believed that the Austro-Hun- garian empire would fall to pieces upon the death of the present emperor. The possibility of inhabiting some of the richest parts of Austria is the greatest inducement to the Balkan countries and Italy for entering the war. The Italians would hope for Trentino, Istria, with Trieste, and perhaps a part of the northern coast of Dalmatia. Servia would want the southern part of Dalmatia, Bosnia, Herzegovina and perhaps a part of Albania. There are other considerations, in the contract upon which the nations would insist, but those given are perhaps the most vital. It may be said, however, in passing, that Rumania would want Bukovina in the north and Transylvania in the west.

Nebraska Conference of the Western States Mission Back row Catherine S. Marchant, Peoa Utah; Frederick B. from left to right, Mid- Kaysville, Utah; Me kin, Prospect, Idaho; Estella E. CriddleIdaho; The Misses Wil- dle row: Victor Lundgreen, Treasureton, son- George T. Simper, Salina, Utah. Front row: Wilford G. Dames, Conferencf President. Hyde Park, Utah; Jo hn L Hernc k Mission Salt Lake City, Utah. President, Leo Blosch, Branch President.